IEA Nudges Up Global Oil Demand Growth Outlook to 1.9M Bpd

    

   CRANBURY, N.J. (DTN) -- The International Energy Agency adjusted slightly 
higher its expectations for global oil demand this year, projecting a growth 
rate of 1.9 million bpd or 2.2 percent to 86.6 million bpd in its monthly Oil 
Market Report for September released this morning.

   The Paris-based energy watchdog said its 2010 forecast was revised up from 
its August expectations for a 1.8 million bpd year-on-year growth rate due to 
stronger data from member countries of the Organization for Economic 
Cooperation and Development.

   IEA maintained its 2011 outlook for 1.3 million bpd year-on-year growth in 
world oil demand.

   "Significant downside risk persists from fears that the world economic 
recovery could stall," the IEA cautioned.

   Crude oil supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 
was down 60,000 bpd to 29.2 million bpd in August.

   The "call on OPEC crude and stock change" was increased to 29.3 million bpd 
for the third quarter and 28.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter because of a 
downward revision in OPEC NGLs.

   For 2011, the IEA expects the "call" on OPEC crude to increase 300,000 bpd 
from this year to 29.2 million bpd.

   Global oil supply was drawn down 250,000 bpd to 52.4 million bpd in August 
because of seasonal maintenance by non-OPEC oil producing countries Canada, the 
United Kingdom and Russia.

   IEA "minimally" raised its projection for non-OPEC supply to 52.6 million 
bpd this year and 52.9 million bpd in 2011, "although Atlantic storms could yet 
curb autumn Gulf of Mexico supplies."

   In July, OECD industry stocks increased by 19.0 million bbl to 2.785 billion 
bbl. Days of forward demand cover increased to 61.4 days in July from June's 
61.0 days, "approaching the record level of August 1998," said the IEA. 

   The agency said preliminary data projects an OECD supply build of 8.7 
million bbl in August, while oil held in floating storage declined.

   The IEA said global refinery crude throughputs for the third quarter were 
seen 600,000 bpd higher than the second quarter at an estimated 74.7 million 
bpd "on a seasonal lull in maintenance." Crude runs could decline to 73.9 
million bpd in the fourth quarter "in line with an expected slowdown in oil 
demand growth," but would still be up 1.4 million bpd from the fourth quarter 
2009.

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